Daily Gains Letter

10-year U.S. Treasury


How to Increase Your Profits as Monetary Policy Tightens

By for Daily Gains Letter | Mar 21, 2014

Federal ReserveThe verdict is in…

The Federal Reserve will taper further. In its statement, the Federal Reserve said, “Beginning in April, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $30 billion per month rather than $35 billion per month.” (Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System web site, March 19, 2014.) The Federal Reserve has been tapering quantitative easing since January by $10.0 billion each month, coming down from $85.0 billion a month in December.

To us, it will not to be a surprise to see the Federal Reserve taper further. If this becomes the case, then in just five months, there will be no quantitative easing. The printing presses will stop.

This doesn’t bother me. It’s all too known and expected.

With this taper announcement, the central bank also provided its projections on where the federal funds rate—the rate at which the Federal Reserve lends to the banks—will go. It said the rate can increase to one percent by 2015. By 2016, this rate can go up to two percent. Mind you, the federal funds rate has been sitting at 0.25% for some time now—since the U.S. economy was in the midst of the financial crisis.

What happens next?

Economics 101 tells us that when interest rates increase, bond prices decline and bond yields increase.

Quantitative easing and low interest rates have caused more harm than good. These two phenomena caused the bond prices to rise and … Read More