Daily Gains Letter


Muted Retail Growth to Move Higher? How to Play the Sector Minus Risk

By for Daily Gains Letter | Feb 27, 2015

Retail Growth to Move HigherRetailers continue to fight for the limited dollar of the consumer. The retail sector is extremely competitive and success is contingent on the right strategy of attack, which means offering the right product mix, competitive pricing, and in the ultra-competitive apparel sector, it means keeping on top of the trends and consumer sentiment.

A good product today could be passé a year from now, as consumer sentiment changes rapidly.

Why Target Failed in Its Canadian Expansion

Target Corporation (NYSE/TGT) beat Wall Street estimates on Wednesday, despite recording a massive $5.1-billion charge after deciding to exit Canada in what has to be one of the biggest blunders in retail history. The reality is that it wasn’t the Canadian consumer sentiment that choked Target, but the company’s mistake in its expansion plans, the first outside of the United States.

Other major retailers, such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE/WMT), The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE/HD), Lowes Companies, Inc. (NYSE/LOW), The Gap, Inc. (NYSE/GPS), and Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE/BBY) to name a few, have managed to expand successfully in Canada after understanding the consumer sentiment there.

Target simply did a bad job in not only its expansion after buying up locations via its purchase of troubled Zellers, but also its exit. The company operated poorly in Canada and failed to grasp the consumer sentiment there. My view is that Target should’ve kept some of its own developed stores in good locations and made the experience better for the Canadian shopper. It didn’t, so here we are. Projected sales growth of 1.6% for FY16 doesn’t offer much comfort.

Retailers Stalling, but Could Edge Higher

The … Read More

How to Play the Hot IPO Market for Profit This Year

By for Daily Gains Letter | Jun 26, 2014

What to Look for in the IPO Market This YearIn the late 1990s, the demand and market for initial public offerings (IPOs) was sizzling with the promise of staggering one-day gains for those lucky enough to get in on the ground floor with share subscriptions. We saw millions made in one day for the chosen ones—the rich.

But that was then. The IPO market, while still quite popular, is nowhere near where it was back then. Investors are now pickier on the issue.

Recall King Digital Entertainment plc (NYSE/KING), the maker of Candy Crush Saga. In my view, this has to be one of the most hyped-up IPOs in recent times. Debuting at $20.50 on March 26, the stock is currently trading at $17.00, but even at this price, I think the valuation is crazy, with a market cap of $5.42 billion. This company doesn’t even make money and it’s vulnerable to weakness for those looking for an aggressive short selling opportunity.

In the social media space, the biggest and most highly anticipated IPO following the debut of Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ/FB) was social media play Twitter, Inc. (NYSE//TWTR). Yet unlike Facebook, Twitter doesn’t currently have any major revenue streams and is still looking for ways to make money. While Twitter is way down from its high of $74.00, I still wouldn’t be a buyer at the current $39.00. The company doesn’t deserve its market cap of $23.0 billion. Until Twitter can provide a valid revenue model instead of its annoying ads placed in the middle of tweets, I would not buy. A decline to below $30.00, however, could provide an aggressive trade.

What’s going to be hot this year … Read More