October U.S. retail sector sales numbers are in, but are they worth getting excited about?
The Census Bureau announced on Wednesday that October retail sector sales increased 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year to $428.1 billion. From a shorter-term perspective, the 0.4% increase really isn’t anything to get excited about; that 3.9% year-over-year increase, though, looks pretty good. (Source: “Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services October 2013,” U.S. Census Bureau web site, November 20, 2013.)
Or does it? Take a step back, and you can see we’ve been in a downtrend for the last few years.
In October 2010, U.S. retail sector sales were up 6.9% month-over-month. This isn’t a big surprise when you consider the so-called economic recovery only began in mid-2009. In October 2011, U.S. retail sector sales were up 7.6% year-over-year, another strong gain on the back of ongoing optimism that the economy would rebound. (Source: “Retail and Food Services Sales,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Research web site, November 20, 2013.)
But then we realized the economic recovery wasn’t much of a recovery at all. In 2012, October retail sector sales were up just 4.4%, almost half the gain of the previous year, and in October 2013, U.S. retail sector sales were up just 3.9%. Looking at it from a longer-term perspective, even the recent October year-over-year numbers aren’t anything to get worked up about.
Today, we’re more than 50 months and $3.0-plus trillion into the Federal Reserve-guided recovery, and we really don’t have much to show for it. In fact, you could argue that the economy might have done better without any … Read More