Daily Gains Letter

capital appreciation


This Top Stock a Poster Child for Consistency

By for Daily Gains Letter | Apr 17, 2014

My Top Stock for Long-Term Investors to Rest EasyThe chase for high-beta stocks appears to be fading at this juncture, as we are seeing a shift in the risk profile to lower-beta and more conservative large-cap stocks in the stock market.

After the staggering gains made by technology and small-cap stocks in 2013, it’s time to take a prudent approach to the stock market and refrain from chasing risk at this time.

We are seeing a move to consumer staples stocks that tend to fare reasonably well in both up and down stock markets.

While I favor small-cap stocks in an up stock market, the current tension in the stock market makes it dangerous to pursue risk. This is a time you need to be in defensive stocks.

The big banks, consumer staples, and industrial sectors look decent for those wanting to continue to invest at this time. Momentum and growth should be avoided for now.

If you are looking for a singular stock market play that offers diversity and a defensive approach, take a look at time-tested General Electric Company (NYSE/GE), which has offered investors steady returns in the majority of periods since its beginnings in 1892.

General Electric (GE) is precisely what you want in this type of market. It’s extremely well diversified across many industries and geographical areas around the world.

The company prides itself on producing steady results to shareholders. Its management strategy is to hire CEOs for 20-year time spans that allow for stability.

GE is the poster child for consistency in corporate America.

The company isn’t going to make you rich in a short period of time in the stock market, but … Read More


Two Underlying Factors You Need to Consider Before Buying Stocks

By for Daily Gains Letter | Mar 21, 2014

Don't Invest in McDonald'sWhen many investors think of blue chip stocks, a common name that pops up is McDonalds Corporation (NYSE/MCD).

A blue chip stock is traditionally a well-established company generating stable corporate earnings and usually paying out an attractive dividend yield. McDonald’s certainly hits the bull’s-eye on these blue chip metrics, which is especially attractive in today’s low-interest-rates world with its forward dividend yield of approximately 3.3%.

The real question to ask is what is McDonald’s potential for corporate earnings growth over the next few years?

There are two underlying factors that I would like to bring to your attention for consideration: 1) the financial health of the company’s primary customers, and 2) the cost of inputs.

While McDonald’s may keep its blue chip status, the growth of corporate earnings remains in doubt. As we all know, both the U.S. and global economy are becoming increasingly split between higher income and lower income people. As we know, neither the U.S. nor the global economy is firing on all cylinders, as seen by the still significantly high unemployment levels.

Wages remain stagnant, and while companies can increase corporate earnings through share buybacks, at some point, revenues must accelerate.

The problem for McDonald’s that could really impact corporate earnings growth is that the costs of inputs, specifically for beef, are rising substantially. The price of beef in February had the largest monthly increase since November of 2003. (Source: “CPI – Item Beef,” United States Department of Labor web site, last accessed March 19, 2014.)

McDonald’s is already struggling with its one-dollar menu. The company has begun shifting its marketing strategy away from the “McDouble” … Read More


Boost Your Returns with These Small-Caps

By for Daily Gains Letter | Jan 9, 2014

Dividend-Paying StocksFor most investors, the past year was about the search for higher-risk assets with the potential for achieving higher returns. This desire helped to propel the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 to returns in excess of 30%, while dividend paying stocks lagged in performance.

Now as we move along in 2014, we could see buying shift to more conservative stocks that pay a dividend to investors. The shift to these stocks could accelerate as comparative bond yields rise, making income investors choose between bonds and dividend stocks.

As an investment strategy, you can consider buying the large-cap dividend plays, such as General Electric Company (NYSE/GE) or The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE/PG).

But while buying large-cap blue chips always makes sense to your overall portfolio strategy, you can increase your portfolio’s overall potential returns by adding small-cap dividend stocks. By doing so, you can usually add in higher capital appreciation potential.

And while there are numerous small-cap dividend plays in the financial and industrial sectors from which to select, I’d like to highlight a couple above-average stocks that you may want to examine further. As I said, these smaller companies offer dividends and higher capital appreciation potential.

In the area of investment management, a mid-cap company that looks like it may make a good addition to your portfolio is Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC (NYSE/OZM), which has a strong dividend yield of 6.7%. The stock has also advanced 61% to shareholders over the past 52 weeks; the S&P 500 returned just 25%. In the third quarter, Och-Ziff managed to beat the Thomson Financial consensus estimate by $0.07, reporting $0.27 per diluted … Read More


Stock Market Bulls Getting Too Bullish

By for Daily Gains Letter | Nov 8, 2013

Stock Market BullsWhether you’re in Pamplona, Spain or on Wall Street, when it comes to running with the bulls, the object is to stay ahead of the pack. This means not getting gouged physically or financially. However, there are an increasingly large number of investors out there right now who think they’ve got a handle on the bull market.

Why? The Federal Reserve says it won’t taper its generous $85.0-billion-per-month quantitative easing policy until the U.S. economy improves. And by that, it means—for now at least—an unemployment rate of 6.5% and an inflation rate of 2.5%.

As a result, the Federal Reserve’s easy money and artificially deflated near-record low interest rates have put the stock market front and center for income-starved investors looking for capital appreciation. As long as the Fed keeps its printing presses in overdrive, there’s no reason to think that the bull market will take a breather.

Case in point: in spite of a year marred with revised lower earnings in the first, second, and third quarters and a record 83.5% of companies issuing negative guidance for the fourth quarter, investors have been flocking with reckless abandon to the S&P 500, which continues to trade near record levels. (Source: “Earnings Insight,” FactSet web site, October 6, 2013.)

For the last week of October, 45% of investors were bullish on the market, down from 49.2% for the week ended October 24—the highest level since February 2011. Month-over-month, the number of market bulls climbed 25%. Over the same period of time, the S&P 500 climbed 4.8%. In the last week of June, just 30.28% of Americans were bullish, representing a four-month … Read More


Time for Income-Starved Investors to Reconsider REITs?

By for Daily Gains Letter | Aug 23, 2013

Time for Income-Starved Investors to Reconsider REITsAfter a serious pullback in May, is it time for income-starved investors to reconsider real estate investment trusts (REITs)? Or will America’s favorite sugar daddy, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, tease investors with ongoing threats of tapering?

The North American REIT bull market was stopped dead in its tracks on May 22, after Bernanke hinted the central bank might begin tapering its massive $85.0-billion-per-month government bond-buying program.

By being the major purchaser of U.S. government bonds, the Federal Reserve has been able to keep interest rates artificially low. Tapering its bond-buying program would mean, in theory, that interest rates head higher. In an effort to protect their retirement portfolio, investors are selling stocks they see as being vulnerable to rising interest rates.

REITs are at the top of the list. That’s because REITs are in the business of purchasing property and higher interest rates on the heels of financing translates into lower profitability.

While artificially low interest rates are a godsend to REITs, they’re a nightmare for average Americans looking to generate retirement income on their long-term bonds.

Interestingly, since May and the ensuing market volatility, the Federal Reserve has said that inevitable tapering would not necessarily result in higher interest rates. That’s more good news for REITs—and more bad news for income-dependent investors.

Unfortunately, many REITs have failed to fully recover from the Federal Reserve’s May 22 comments. Those depressed prices have opened up a door of opportunity for savvy investors. That’s because, when prices for REITs (and dividend stocks) fall, yields rise. The volatility means investors can pick up quality REITs at depressed prices with higher returns.

REIT … Read More


Why Chasing Income Stocks Is No Longer a Smart Move

By for Daily Gains Letter | Aug 2, 2013

Federal ReserveAmerica’s favorite sugar daddy, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, has once again come to Wall Street’s rescue. The U.S. Federal Reserve said that while the economy continues to recover, it is still in need of support. As a result, it will continue its $85.0 billion-per-month bond-buying program unabated. (Source: “Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System web site, July 31, 2013.)

Before the markets opened Wednesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a faster-than-expected pace of 1.7%; that’s up from a revised 1.1% in the first quarter. (Source: “National Income and Product Accounts Gross Domestic Product, second quarter 2013 (advance estimate),” Bureau of Economic Analysis web site, July 31, 2013.)

Despite the better-than-expected results, the Federal Reserve said that the U.S. economy expanded at a modest pace during the first six months of the year, and that the overall economic picture remains lackluster.

To help quell nervous investors, the Federal Reserve also revised the unemployment rate at which it would consider raising interest rates to six percent; previously, the Federal Reserve had said it would raise interest rates once the jobless rate hit 6.5%. Needless to say, with unemployment sitting at 7.6%, the U.S. economy has a long way to go.

Lower long-term interest rates are supposed to encourage consumers and businesses to take out loans for homes, new equipment, etc. At the same time, banks have been reluctant to lend to those who need it the most, which is reflected on Wall Street. Thanks to the Federal Reserve’s $85.0-billion-per-month quantitative easing policy, the S&P … Read More


Forget American Markets, These ETFs Have More Room to Run

By for Daily Gains Letter | Apr 12, 2013

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 continue to soar into uncharted territory. With strong gains over the last four-plus years, you’d think there must be a lot of really wealthy investors out there who are celebrating.

There aren’t many rags-to-riches stories coming out of this bull market. There are a lot of rich-to-richer stories, though.

Regardless of which way the markets are headed, people are, for the most part, bad at investing. Between 1990 and 2010, the average U.S. equity investor earned just 3.8% annually, less than half the 9.1% return from the S&P 500. The average fixed-income (bonds) investor pocketed just one percent annually over the same 20-year time frame, as opposed to the 6.9% annual return reported by Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. (Source: “Investors Can Manage Psyche to Capture Alpha: Dalbar Study of Investor Returns Offers Way to Improve Investor’s Alpha,” Dalbar, Inc. web site, April 1, 2011, last accessed April 11, 2013.)

The average stock fund investor barely beat inflation, while the average fixed-income investor lost money after factoring in inflation. Why are we so bad at investing? Technically, it’s not our fault. We’re hardwired not to lose, but to cut and run.

In days of yore, we survived with our fight-or-flight instinct by running when it made sense to run. The vast majority of those who stuck around to fight the good (no-chance-of-winning) fight didn’t make it. Those who did, though, had bragging rights.

Fast-forward to today, and it’s hard to fight our instincts when it comes to investing. We overestimate our investing acumen when the markets are doing well, and we … Read More