Out of the first seven trading days of 2014, the S&P 500 declined on five of those days, marking the worst start to the year for the stock market since 2005. This phenomenon has raised many questions. Looking at this, investors are asking how the returns on the S&P 500 will look this year. Why? Because in 2005, the S&P 500 only increased by 2.87%.
In 2005, the months of July and November were good for the S&P 500; the index increased by more than 3.5% in each of those months. On the other hand, January, March, and April were the worst-performing months that year. In these months, the S&P 500 declined by more than two percent. (Source: StockCharts.com, last accessed January 15, 2014.)
Will the S&P 500 follow the same trajectory in 2014 as it did in 2005?
As it stands, I believe the S&P 500 may perform worse than it did in 2005. As I’ve mentioned in these pages many times before, there are many factors that are leading me to believe this can happen; for example, we are seeing a surge in optimism towards stocks—stock advisors are the most bullish they’ve been since the last market sell-off. As well, the U.S. economic growth isn’t really surprising when you look much deeper into the details, and most importantly; the Federal Reserve has announced that it will start to reduce its asset purchases (quantitative easing). When combined, these phenomena could bring the S&P 500’s performance down this year.
Regardless, you have to keep one of the most important lessons of investing in mind: don’t predict tops and bottoms. The … Read More