Daily Gains Letter

stock market correction


The Red Flag I’m Seeing in Stocks Right Now

By for Daily Gains Letter | Jul 16, 2014

Why Massive Capital Infusion from Retail Investors Is a Red FlagIn my previous article, I talked about the vulnerability of stocks at this time, a disappointing economy, and what will likely be disappointing earnings.

On the weekend, I was thinking back to 2000, when the stock market came crashing down after a sizzling but unwarranted run-up in technology stocks and initial public offerings (IPOs). It wasn’t pretty, and while I don’t believe the stock market is priming for another major sell-off right now, I’m still nervous.

The DOW recovered to 17,000 on Monday, but if it fails to hold again, I would be wary. The failure of the S&P 500 to test 2,000 despite coming so close is also a red flag, based on my technical analysis.

Yet unlike 14 years ago, the current bull stock market, which is in its fifth year and looking weary, has largely been driven by the easy money the Federal Reserve has been pumping into the economy. The reality is that this third round of quantitative easing (QE3) will likely be dissolved by October and interest rates will be heading higher by mid-2015. As I said the other day, this will have a negative impact on the stock market.

In addition, the rising flow of capital into the stock market by retail investors is also a red flag that has generally been followed by selling in the past.

What you have are investors who have sat on the sidelines, waiting for a major stock market correction that really hasn’t materialized in five years. This group sees people making money in the stock market and decides they need to jump in with little regard as … Read More


What the World Cup and the Stock Market Have in Common This Year

By for Daily Gains Letter | Jul 14, 2014

How to Make Some Premium Income This SummerLast Wednesday, I had fun watching the World Cup game between Argentina and the Netherlands. As strange as it may sound, I actually found that the tension and apprehension throughout the match reminded me of the stock market.

Despite the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently trading above 17,000 and the S&P 500 at another record-high, I still sense the stock market is vulnerable to selling. I think this will be especially true if the second-quarter earnings season pans out as expected, devoid of any major growth in earnings or revenues.

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE/AA) offered up a nice report, but I’m not sure how much it counts, as the company really is not a major bellwether as to the health of the global economy.

The reality is that consumer spending drives the economy and the stock market. I would rather look at what’s happening at bellwether global retailer Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE/WMT) than Alcoa. The “Death Star” of the retail sector is struggling for growth around the world—and that cannot be good news. Even discount stores, which tend to be more immune to slowing, are showing signs of weakness.

In other words, while the stock market has edged higher, I still wouldn’t get too comfortable at this time. I think we could see another minor stock market correction should earnings tank. Of course, this would provide us with an investment opportunity to buy shares on weakness in the stock market.

Now there’s some optimism following the Federal Reserve’s dovish remarks from its June meeting, as there’s a sense that interest rates will not ratchet higher until after mid-2015, depending on the … Read More


How Last Week’s Mini Rally Is Reshaping My Investment Strategy

By for Daily Gains Letter | Apr 21, 2014

Mini Rally Means for Your Investment StrategyThe stock market staged a minor rally last week, but don’t get too excited yet; the buying support was largely triggered by a technically oversold market, rather than solid fundamentals or a fresh catalyst.

What I can say is that investors need to be careful with the high-beta stocks that are extremely volatile at this time and vulnerable to downside selling.

Just because momentum surfaces, it doesn’t mean the risk is dissipating. It’s simply an oversold bounce that could continue or falter again.

The fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 recovered their 50-day moving averages (MAs) last Tuesday is positive, but it doesn’t mean the worst is over.

I see the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were still down more than seven percent as of last Wednesday and below their respective 50-day MAs. In fact, the Russell 2000 is within reach of testing support at its 200-day MA. This time around, we could see a bigger stock market correction, based on my technical analysis.

Until we see some sustained calm return, there could be continued selling pressure in the stock market, especially with the smaller high-beta stocks and large-cap momentum plays.

The most critical point to understand is that you need to preserve your capital base. The reality is that avoiding a loss is just as good as making profits. Imagine letting a losing trade run and before you realize it, the position is down 20%, 30%, or more.

This is especially true with the small-cap stocks. Making up ground following a major downside move is not easy. For instance, say you have a $10.00 stock and … Read More


Considering Dumping Stocks? Why You Should Reconsider

By for Daily Gains Letter | Apr 9, 2014

Investment StrategyI’m starting to receive more questions regarding the state of the stock market and whether it’s simply a bout of profit-taking or the set-up of a deeper stock market correction.

First of all, panicking is not what you want to do. Yes, we are seeing some selling surfacing, but that doesn’t necessarily mean you should go and dump stocks.

After the year we had in 2013 and the fact that the bull stock market is in its fifth year and devoid of a major question despite the advance, it would not be a surprise to see some selling.

Also, with bond yields beginning to rise, we will see a reduction in the assumed risk and will likely see a shift of capital into bonds and away from the stock market as yields rise.

The reality is that the stock market is already seeing a decline in the assumed risk in 2014. Technology stocks and small-cap stocks are no longer the stars of Wall Street this year.

We are seeing a lack of market leadership and extreme selling on the momentum stocks, which clearly is a red flag. The concern is that the drop-off in the momentum stocks is significant and could likely extend lower since the rise was euphoric.

Instead of seeking added returns, we are seeing a move towards safety as traders are shifting capital to blue chips and large-cap stocks that are better equipped to withstand a stock market sell-off and have largely proven themselves over decades.

On the charts, the NADSAQ and Russell 2000 are down more than two percent in April versus a less than one-percent … Read More


How to Profit from the Dow’s “Dogs”

By for Daily Gains Letter | Feb 10, 2014

Small-cap stocksSmall-cap stocks are faring the worst this year and are down nearly 10% from their record-high in late 2013; many would deem this to be an official stock market correction.

Given that small-cap stocks surged upward by more than 33% in 2013, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see this group get the brunt of the selling this year.

Higher-beta stocks, such as small-cap stocks or growth stocks, tend to outperform when the stock market is moving higher, but they are more vulnerable to downside weakness. This is the risk you assume when investing in small-cap stocks.

The reality is that the associated risk of buying stocks is intensified with small-cap stocks, which is why you also need to make sure you have some proven large-cap stocks in your portfolio to help alleviate some of your overall portfolio risk.

I’m not saying that you should avoid small-cap stocks in their entirety, but I do think you should look at adding some large-cap or blue chip stocks if you are devoid in this area.

The advantage of larger companies is that we know these businesses have a proven long-term track record and will likely be around decades from now, whereas small-cap stocks are more vulnerable and may not recover during an economic and market relapse.

A large company can easily absorb several quarters or even years of underperformance but small-cap stocks would have a much more difficult time doing this because they have fewer financial resources.

A classic example of a large company struggling but managing to pull out was McDonalds Corporation (NYSE/MCD). The company faced issues in the 1970s and … Read More


Why I Wouldn’t Give Up on This Stock Market Yet

By for Daily Gains Letter | Feb 6, 2014

Stock MarketAnother day and another 300-point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average—that seems to be the norm right now. But despite my assurances that things will inevitably get better, I continue to see extreme nervousness out there.

Now it’s probably time for more hand-holding as we move along during this mini crisis in the markets.

Look, the world isn’t going to blow apart. We are simply hoping through a stock market correction that should have occurred in 2013 but didn’t, largely due to the Federal Reserve’s easy money policy. That’s coming to an end as the tapering continues, but so what?

Based on the morning trading activity on Tuesday, the stock market, while edging higher, wasn’t exactly showing that it was firmly behind the buying; hence, it will likely be prone to more downside moves. My thinking is that we could receive another five-percent hit and then slowly rally.

The concern is that we could see more selling capitulation emerging on higher volume, so investors should be very careful.

The failure of the Dow to hold at its 200-day moving average (MA) is concerning.

Small-cap stocks were down nearly 10% at the close of Monday, nearing what would be an official stock market correction. Just watch how the Russell 2000 behaves going forward, focusing on whether it can hold and rally from here.

My assessment is that the stock market could likely move lower prior to staging a rally.

Of course, the release of a softer-than-expected ISM Index hurt and suggested the economy may not be as strong as the gross domestic product (GDP) growth would indicate.

The thing is … Read More


Another Five Percent Down for the S&P 500, at Minimum?

By for Daily Gains Letter | Feb 3, 2014

S&P 500Though making money is important, that’s not the be-all and end-all behind smart investment strategies. Just think about the common phrase “a dollar saved is a dollar earned.”

Success in trading and investing means you need to be aware of both the upside and downside risks, such as we are seeing now as the stock market moves lower.

In general, investors should hold off on buying for now until we see some solid opportunities. Trading volume is rising on the down days, which confirms the selling pressure. As well, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined for five straight sessions, losing nearly four percent in that time.

A look at the chart of the S&P 500 makes me nervous. The index is searching hard for technical support on the chart after dropping below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages (MAs), as shown on the chart below. The break, while worrisome and bearish, is not a big deal unless we fail to see the emergence of any strong oversold technical buying support.

You want to see high volume on the buy side, as it shows mass market participation and a willingness to buy. Light volume would not be conducive to a sustainable buying support.

Now, as a chartist, one needs to watch several key technical support levels where there has been some buying in the past. The first is around 1,770. Failure to attract sufficient buying support here could see the S&P 500 run downward toward the key 1,700 level, last encountered on October 15, 2013.

$SPX S&P 500 Large Cap Index Chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Should the S&P 500 decline to 1,700, it would translate … Read More


The Contrarian: Why I Think Stocks Will Rise in 2014

By for Daily Gains Letter | Jan 6, 2014

Stocks Will Rise in 2014Now that New Year’s has come and gone, as we look forward into 2014, the big question will be how the stock market performs this year, especially following an impressive advance in 2013 that was beyond my estimates.

The past year was seen as the year of the Fed-induced market rally that resulted in some strong gains across the board from blue chips to technology and growth stocks. It was one of the best years to make money on the stock market in recent history.

At this stage, the economy is looking better and will need to strengthen in order for the stock market to advance higher toward more record gains. A strong January would be positive and would suggest an up year for the stock market.

My early view is that the stock market will head higher in 2014, but not at the same rate as we saw in 2013, which was out of whack.

The key will be how fast the Federal Reserve, under Janet Yellen, decides to taper its bond buying. A slower taper is supportive for the stock market. However, the flow of money will depend on the rate of economic renewal and, more specifically, the jobs market and whether job creation continues to move along at a steady pace. If we see growth and more jobs created, the Fed will continue to cut its bond buying, though it has said that it will keep interest rates near record lows until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5% or lower, which could happen sometime in mid- to late 2014.

I see another up year for the stock … Read More


Two Key Steps to Stock Market Success in 2014

By for Daily Gains Letter | Dec 19, 2013

Stock Market Success in 2014This year, Christmas will bring joy to many investors with the stock market now nailing gains in excess of 30% for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000. Even if you are a more conservative investor buying DOW and S&P 500 stocks, your wallet still got bigger.

What has surprised me this year has not been the advance as much as the ability of the stock market to avoid a sizable stock market correction. The S&P 500 retrenched about 6.5% in May and June after the Federal Reserve first uttered the word “taper.” Yet the downcast mood didn’t last that long, as traders quickly entered the market and bought on the weakness. This has largely been the pattern this year, where any sign of weakness was followed by buying.

S&P Large Cap Index Chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Now I’m not a pessimist, but I do believe in market adjustments along the way. At the beginning of the year, I predicted the stock market would move higher, but not at the rate and size we saw. Maybe a 15% upside, but definitely not 30% plus.

Record after record, the stock market appears to be looking to higher ground. I remain bullish at this time, especially if consumers decide to up their spending. Yet there’s still the lack of revenue growth in corporate America that hopefully could correct itself as we move into 2014.

At this point, you really should look to realize some profits, especially on your big winners, prior to the year-end tax season. To counter some of the gains, I suggest you also divest some of your dogs in your portfolio. Look, we all make … Read More


Best Way to Hedge Against Political and Economic Uncertainty

By for Daily Gains Letter | Oct 11, 2013

Hedge Against PoliticalWe’re less than a week away from the perfect economic storm in the U.S., and, based on what others are predicting, just a few short months away from a major 15% stock market correction.

At the beginning of October, almost a million federal employees were furloughed after the U.S. government shut down because it failed to ratify its annual budget. Should the government fail to raise the debt ceiling and therefore default on its loans, that issue will be exacerbated when the debt ceiling deadline arrives.

Failing to raise the debt ceiling will just add to America’s economic woes and put a major dent in the global economy while also undermining America’s credibility on the world stage. While some think a short-term default on the debt ceiling will not cause a major ripple, history is not on their side.

In 1979, the U.S. breached the debt ceiling on about $122 million in bills, but that was blamed on a technical issue related to a new-fangled word processing failure. The glitch caused yields to increase by half a percentage point, where they stayed elevated for months. A default on the debt ceiling this time around couldn’t be blamed on a technical difficulty due to new technology (having a disproportionate ego, however, could be a valid excuse).

Even after the U.S. government shutdown is resolved and the debt ceiling is raised, the U.S. will have suffered a major blow to its credibility. After that, it could go from bad to worse.

According to French banking giant Societe Generale, the S&P 500 will go through a tumultuous correction, even after the debt ceiling … Read More