Daily Gains Letter

stock market rally


How to Invest in a Stock Market Correction

By for Daily Gains Letter | Feb 12, 2014

Stock Market CorrectionHas the stock market rebounded? Some seem to think so. After recording the worst month in more than a year and the first monthly loss since August, some analysts think the worst is behind us and February will be a winner.

What further evidence do the bulls need than to point to the numbers! After falling more than three percent in January, the S&P 500 is up 0.75%; the NYSE is up a little more than 0.50%; the NASDAQ is up roughly 0.75%; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up around 0.50%. Not a spectacular display of strength—but enough to buoy up some investors.

But the euphoria may be short-lived. While stocks are holding up right now, there are more than enough warning signs (technical, economic, and statistical) that are pointing to a correction.

For starters, February is the second-worst-performing month for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average so far, and it’s the fourth-weakest month for the NASDAQ. Plus, according to historical data, February tends to perform even worse when January is negative. Since 1971, when January ended on a negative, the S&P 500 extended its losses into February 72% of the time—falling an average 2.4%. For the Dow Jones Industrial Average it ends down 65% of the time and 57% of the time the NASDAQ ends down, too.

But the stock markets are only as strong as the stocks that make them—so statistics on their own are a little short-sighted. Every quarter since the beginning of 2013, more and more S&P 500-listed companies are revising their quarterly earnings lower. During the first quarter of 2013, 78% … Read More


Time to Go Against the Key Stock Indices?

By for Daily Gains Letter | Jan 6, 2014

Key Stock IndicesTrading for 2014 has begun. In 2013, we saw massive moves on the key stock indices—something we have only seen a few times. For example, the S&P 500 moved up by almost 30%, and the NASDAQ Composite increased by more than 35%. Those who were long saw their portfolio grow, and those who went against the key stock indices probably had to question their strategy and re-allocate the capital.

You can see for yourself in the chart below: key stock indices such as the S&P 500 maintained an upward trajectory throughout the year—and without any major hiccups.

S&P 500 Large Cap Index Chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

The average return on the S&P 500 between 1970 and 2012 was 8.2%; on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it was 7.9%; and on the NASDAQ Composite, it was just slightly more than 13%. (Source: “Historical Price Data,” StockCharts.com, last accessed January 2, 2013.)

Sadly, these numbers only indicate past performance. With the beginning of the new year, investors have one main question in mind: where are the key stock indices going to go in 2014? Will we see a decline or are we in for another stellar year?

The year 2014, I believe, is going to be an interesting year for stock investors. The rally in the key stock indices that started in 2009 continues to march forward. As this is happening, the fundamentals that act as fuel for the stock market rally are becoming anemic. This should be noted, because without fundamentals becoming stronger, key stock indices can only go so far.

For instance, on the surface, the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) looks better than before, … Read More


Why These Particular Markets Will Be More Attractive to Investors in 2014

By for Daily Gains Letter | Dec 17, 2013

Investors in 2014The U.S. stock market rally has been on a solid run this year, thanks in large part to the Federal Reserve’s $85.0-billion-per-month quantitative easing policy—well, that and some solid economic indicators. But the question remains: will the momentum continue into 2014?

It all depends on whether or not the U.S. stock market rally follows the laws of physics. For example, when it comes to momentum, an object will continue unless force is applied against it, either a huge amount of force all at once or an applied force over a given period of time. On the other hand, the more momentum something has, the harder it is to stop.

The fuel that has helped propel the U.S. stock market rally over the last number of years could be flickering out. Thanks to better-than-expected employment and retail numbers and strong preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) numbers, many think the Federal Reserve will start to taper its quantitative easing strategy sooner than later.

The end of easy money, some think, could put a cramp in the stock market’s four-year-plus rally—or at least make it run a little more slowly in 2014 than it did in 2013. Whereas the S&P 500 is up roughly 25% year-to-date, analysts think it will grow by as little as six percent and as much as 11% in 2014. This means that the S&P 500 will experience another year of record-highs in 2014, but not quite as bullish as 2013. (Source: “Here’s What 14 Top Wall Street Strategists Are Saying About The Stock Market In 2014,” Business Insider web site, December 13, 2013.)

Those looking to outpace the … Read More


Once a Good Investment, Always a Good Investment?

By for Daily Gains Letter | Apr 17, 2013

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One of the main reasons a stock market rally occurs is due to a general consensus among market participants regarding future expectations. Market participants currently believe that companies will be showing better earnings and the overall economic conditions will improve from where they stand now.

Similarly, for certain stocks to go higher, companies should be expected to perform well in the future and grow their business—consistency in sales and profit is expected.

With this said, after profiting significantly from an investment, you might believe that you will be able to profit from it all the time, and that the prices will continue to soar higher, regardless of economic conditions or other factors. Remember the housing market boom in the U.S.? It wasn’t uncommon to hear someone say, “Home prices always go up,” or, “The housing market is always a great place to invest in.” But a few years down the road, we can all see what has happened—home prices in the U.S. economy are still depressed from their highs in 2006.

When it comes to the wider stock market, the situation is very similar—things don’t stay the same forever. A certain stock may be doing great at some point in time, but it may not be the greatest investment to own at another time. Investors must focus on the future outlook of a company and how it will perform, rather than what it has done in past.

Consider Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE/CAT), for example. After the financial crisis and the broad market sell-off in the key stock indices, this company was a great buy. Just take a look at the chart … Read More


Stock Market Flying High, but What About Risk?

By for Daily Gains Letter | Apr 4, 2013

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The performance of many blue chips—consumer staples stocks, in particular—is really stunning. And looking at the shares and how much they’ve moved on the stock market, even since the beginning of the year, you really have to wonder how sustainable this stock market rally is.

I am a big believer in blue chips and investing in stocks that pay growing dividends over time. But right now, we have so many companies trading right at their all-time record highs. I wouldn’t say that the stock market is expensively priced, but realistically, other than momentum players, would individual investors be buying these stocks at their all-time record highs? I find that unlikely.

The stock market breakout really is meaningful and pronounced. Consider The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE/PG), which has been bid up approximately 16 points since last summer. Procter & Gamble’s stock chart is featured below:

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Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

The stock market is most definitely due for a break. The leadership from blue chips has been significant, but it also reveals the fragility and uncertainty in the marketplace. Institutional investors want to buy stocks, and they are; but they are buying the safest names.

For the stock market’s current momentum to continue, technology stocks are going to have to show more leadership going forward. Investors are buying in anticipation of a decent first-quarter earnings season.

Among the many blue chips that are soaring in this stock market, consider Johnson & Johnson (NYSE/JNJ). This stock has been rising consistently and strongly since the beginning of the year. Its performance is so unusual. It really is a powerhouse breakout. Johnson & Johnson’s … Read More